In any case, what's your take? Before you answer, be sure Only then, in my view, will education, enterprise, and other sectors become markets that will substantially grow. And that's just drawing from the people who've already indicated an interest in SL. And at that point, we're probably dealing with a population that's large enough to finally achieve a network effect of growth. If SL's retention rates are increased from their current rate of 10-15% to something like 20-30%, we're talking about a userbase growing from its current 800,000 active users to the several millions. This, in my opinion, is Second Life's core market, which should be pursued with an energetic marketing campaign and new user experience. Every month, about 400,000 people still download the software and make a similar search, and only a fraction are retained. The problem is, nearly all of them couldn't readily access the content they came looking for in a way that was enjoyable enough for them to stay. Since 2003, roughly 15 million people have already shown enough interest in Second Life to download and install the software. What market will make Second Life cross the chasm? Here's one idea:Įveryone who's already expressed an interest in Second Life in the past, and who will in the near future.īecause that's the largest market of all. McDunnough makes many great points, though I think she may be complicating the question some.
Well, how about enterprise? Grace balks there too:Īs an "embedded practitioner" I know first hand how difficult it is to get people to download and install simple plugins for WebEx or AdobeConnect, much less go through the standard Second Life download and orientation so it's really hard for me to imagine that this is the "beachhead" Moore suggested. and the introduction of land pricing model changes combined the recent departure of John Lester/Pathfinder Linden seem to indicate that the Lab's past love affair with the edurati is in that "old married couple" stage - safe, secure, not really growing wildly and with a lot less sex. I'm convinced the education market is saturated. Harvard's analysis believes those include enterprise customers, educators, adult consumers or teens, but Grace is skeptical any of them will push Second Life across the gap. One business strategy, pushed by Crossing the Chasm author Geoffrey Moore, is to aggressively go after a particular market segment, and Grace wonders which one the Lindens should focus on. Metaverse musician and Web 2.0 analyst Grace McDunnough has an incisive and important post responding to a Harvard Business School case study called "Linden Lab: Crossing the Chasm", which provokes her to frame that topic in the form of a question: What will push Second Life to a point where it reaches mainstream adoption?
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